The Inevitable Decline of Traditional Book Publishing
by Tod on 07/02/10 at 9:45 pm
The book market is in perhaps its most interesting transition of its 700 year life span. Take the gunfighters’ stare down between Macmillan and Amazon last week. It was a game of chicken that may have seen Amazon blink. Maybe. A bit of me wonders if Amazon doesn’t have yet another surprise in mind.
More importantly, however, I think the book market is changing forever. The market we know today will not be bigger in the future, but likely smaller. The key to that last statement is what we know today.
My theory is that so much free content means that it is harder for mediocre content to be monetized. And, mediocre content does account for a portion of today’s market. Consumers have, and always will, pay for truly compelling content. Spotting great content and then monetizing it may get easier. Chris Brogan’s latest venture, Third Tribe, is a perfect example.
The Internet has made content less rare and more abundant, and thus the general value of content is falling, whether it be music, video or book. This will lead to mergers among traditional book publishers. Most will be unable to keep up with the changes, and thus they will simply not have enough cash left over from traditional book revenues to pay for current staff levels and warehouses. This is inevitable.
There will be those publishers, however, that have the courage to do the unconventional. That means being much more selective about what is published and determining potential cross platform value. The most valuable content will be those properties that provide great content across the most platforms; such as eBooks, the Internet, iPad multimedia books and good old traditional print books. Jason Perlow says that the iPad is giving traditional book publishers the tools to build more interesting “books”.
We are trying at Thomas Nelson to change quickly, and I am impressed with our efforts such as DigiReady and with social media. Truth is, however, that most in our industry won’t have the vision or courage or desire to change quick enough. The result will be less traditional book publishing jobs and companies.
By the way, traditional hardcover and soft cover books will never go away. I am just saying that if you want to grow personally in the content business, we have to accept that our future is in finding and developing the best content that can exploit the most delivery platforms.
What say you?
Susan Kishner
Feb 7th, 2010
Hello.
I like your site and wanted to know if you would be interested in exchanging blogroll links.
Thanks in advance
todshuttleworth
Feb 8th, 2010
Susan – If it is relevant to my audience I will. Please send a link. Thanks.
Larry
Feb 8th, 2010
Tod- good stuff, but i am going to add another platform that I believe will become more important as the bridge between digital and print. If we are speaking of monetizing the content, then we need to speak of partnering with or providing platforms (concerts would be the music industry equivalent) for our authors. We have and offer this platform with a few of our authors via WOF. I believe that this will continue to feed the content delivery mechanism, be it electronic or print, and could be the major source of revenue for the author and publisher.
todshuttleworth
Feb 8th, 2010
Larry – I agree, I think. When we say we are content producers instead of just book publishers, we are expanding our scope. We also need to expand the various ways of monetizing that content. Questions: Are you suggesting that part of the content we captaure and resell are author discussoins, speeches., etc? And/or are you saying that we ought to expand our live event offerings to include live events, but perhaps on a different level that WoF?
Larry
Feb 9th, 2010
I am not saying to capture the discussions and speeches (though that could be interesting) – I am thinking more along the lines of a speakers bureau of sorts, and there are many out there already doing a nice business from some of our authors and the expertise (content) they provide – yes a different level than WOF.
todshuttleworth
Feb 9th, 2010
There are certainly many firms out there that do that. Let's go buy one.
Seriously, this is exactly the kind of thinking we need. I don't know if that is it, but it could be. We have to keep thinking and experimenting.
Maurilio
Feb 8th, 2010
Interestingly, the digital book in the future might not be a book at all–not limited by the printed word anyway. I can see words, audio, video, stills contributing to a true digital experience. However exciting that might be for the reader/user, it poses some interesting questions for the publisher. What content does the publish own? What if the author uses a forum or ongoing dialogue that becomes part of this new digital experience, thus creating new content as part of her new work. Does the publisher pay for new content or will that be part of the original contract?
The digital revolution in the publishing business will have a more disruptive effect than it had on the music industry, since technology continues to become cheaper and viable commodity daily . I'm not sure what the answer is here, but If I were the lawyer for a publishing house, I'd suggest owning the entire author and not only his content.
todshuttleworth
Feb 8th, 2010
Maurilio – You have hit one of the many proverbial nails on the head as we move forward. Many publishers, including Thomas Nelson, are not truly prepared for this shift yet. It not only places more on us publishers to make sure we have rights to the content we want to use, but the author or primary content owner. Where we are going changes it for everyone…publishers, authors and agents. I suspect like many disruptive occurances, a whole new set of rules will be developed over time.
Scott D. Winter
Feb 8th, 2010
Great thoughts, Tod.
I said this many times when I was working with electronic content at Nelson. Our job wasn't to be the technology creators (which we were chasing in order to maintain control), but to do what we do best – create great content (and only great content, like you said) and make that content available in whatever form the user dictated (and made sense, of course).
Yes, by giving up control we may give up a little more margin in the long run (and therefore jobs, as I saw first hand), but in the end it's the right decision for the company if you want to stay in business and not be gobbled up by someone else, again, as you said.
todshuttleworth
Feb 8th, 2010
Scott – Great observation. I think it also means that we need to be willing to learn new skills to stay relevant here at Nelson. We are trying to do that with things like DigiReady, but let's be honest; disruptive change is never easy. Thanks for your candor.
Lisa Stilwell
Feb 8th, 2010
Just came from a meeting with an author about his next book. I was proud to explain how his book will be available digitally when the hard copy releases. Needless to say, he was very impressed! I am very thankful to be working for a company that does have the vision and the courage to change with the times.
todshuttleworth
Feb 8th, 2010
Lisa – Thomas Nelson is blessed to have folks like you that are willing to embrace change and think in new ways. That one idea you have (which I don't want to broadcast to the world) is great!! You know which one I am referring to; I just need to sort out how to do it. Thank you for leading!!
uberVU - social comments
Feb 8th, 2010
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K. Robert Campbell
Feb 9th, 2010
It will be interesting to see how author contracts pan out. New authors like me might be enticed to sign up for thw whole package out of necessity, but more established authors may want to parcel out the rights.
I think the idea of offering a wide variety of reading media to consumers is a wise one and if handled right, could be quite a win-win-win for authors, publishers and readers.
todshuttleworth
Feb 9th, 2010
Mr. Campbell – I think you are right on. As publishers, our challenge is to provide such a compelling offering that authors feel we are the best option for maximizing the impact of their content. If we do not, we will be irrelevant. Thank you for your thoughts.
Gary Davidson
Feb 9th, 2010
Tod, you have my full support in pointing Thomas Nelson in the right direction. Understanding this change if critical for long term success. Technology is so far ahead of where content providers are currently but the ship is turning even if more slowly than we would like. Both ships must sail in the same direction but getting there is the concern. How do we get this process to move more quickly?
todshuttleworth
Feb 9th, 2010
Gary – You ask one of the most important questions…How do we get this process to move more quickly? If I knew all the answers to that $64,000 question, we would be golden. I suspect it is most important to engage the company in this discusion. We have to provide the vision, but our very loyal employees will be the ones that do most of the execution. We must experiment, and do that, we need solid DigiReady files of our content. If we do not get that done then, we can't get to the next level. But then, we need to experiement by combining our DigiReady content with other forms of content for a new and possibly better experience for at least some folks. There will be plentry of failure along the way, but we will also hit stride with some initiatives.
MacKenzie Howard
Feb 12th, 2010
As an editor and typically a traditionalist, such talk used to make me shiver. Now however, I've learned to embrace, and even get excited about some of these changes. It gives me, as a developer, more opportunity to think outside the box and enhance our products. We can be more creative than ever, and we can still keep people reading. Don't get me wrong, I won't be tossing my books or my library card, but I love my Kindle! I think we'll be seeing some exciting products and opportunities in the next year.
todshuttleworth
Feb 12th, 2010
MacKenzie – You have blossomed as a leader at Thomas Nelson in digital publishing. You have helped lead the DigiReady charge and made an important impact at Thomas Nelson. I appreciate all you do. Your curioslity to think outside the box will provide you a long and and successfil career as a content creator.
Why Publishers Will Still Be Relevant | Tod Shuttleworth
Mar 15th, 2010
[...] by Tod on 15/03/10 at 10:06 am Hello there! If you are new here, you might want to subscribe to the RSS feed for updates on this topic.Powered by WP Greet Box WordPress PluginThere has been a degree pessimism about the future of publishing. In fact, I wrote just a few weeks ago about The Inevitable Decline of Book Publishing. [...]
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Aug 22nd, 2011
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